šŸ˜ŗ AI bubble ramifications...

PLUS: TikTok fired an intern for sabotaging its AI...
October 22, 2024
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Welcome, humans.

ByteDanceā€™s AI game is strongā€”especially its TikTok content algorithm. Arguably, itā€™s the companyā€™s money-maker.

Well, over the weekend, an intern ā€œmaliciously interferedā€ in one of the companyā€™s other AI projects, reportedly causing millions in damages.

At first, we thought maybe the intern slipped some spicy content into the dataset as a prank. But this wasn't your typical intern mixup, like accidentally CCā€™ing the entire company your Chipotle order (true story!).

According to internal reports (original post here), the intern exploited vulnerabilities to deliberately sabotage training runs by inserting delays, killing processes, and even reversing training progressā€”and then, they had the audacity to sit in on troubleshooting meetings so they could adjust their attacks to avoid detection.

Why? All because GPU resources were diverted from their research. Somewhere, back at HQ, an NVIDIA salesperson is taking notesā€¦

Hereā€™s what you need to know about AI today:

  • We break down the bear case against AI.
  • Meta announced facial recognition to stop ā€œceleb bait.ā€
  • Microsoft launched 10 new agents ahead of Salesforce.
  • Teachersā€™ widespread use of AI detectors hurt vulnerable students.

Advertise in The Neuron here.

Hereā€™s the ā€œBear Caseā€ against the AI Boomā€¦or should we say ā€œBubble Caseā€?

Two finance wise-guys, Jeffry Funk and Gary Smith, just dropped an op-ed claiming the AI bubble will be much bigger than the dot-com bust.

This was an op-ed in Dow Jones & Co, so this was directed at investors. The message? Brace for impact.

Hereā€™s their argument:

  1. AI bulls compare rapid AI adoption to slower internet uptake as proof against a bubble, but that's flawed:
    1. In 1999, a computer cost $5K+ and internet was $113/month in 2024 dollars. Big costs = big payback hopes.
    2. Today, GenAI is mostly free to try (thanks to big tech + VCs subsidizing it). No cost = no friction = no stakes.
  2. AIā€™s creation costs (>$100M for training + loads of water and energy) outweigh the benefits.
    1. OpenAI expects losses of $14B in 2026, $44B in 2028, and wonā€™t profit til 2029ā€¦when its revenue hits $100B.
    2. OpenAIā€™s $157B valuation (~42x earnings on $3.7B revenue) tops 87% of S&P 500 companies.
  3. AI needs $600B annual revenue to justify investments; current revenue = ~1% of that.
    1. Internet revenue in 2000 was $1.5T (2024 dollars)ā€”and it still burst.
    2. AI revenue today < $10B, suggesting a way bigger pop.

Source: MorningStar

Why this matters: Funk just wrote a book about exploiting tech investment bubbles, and Smith is an expert at ā€œdebunkingā€ data misuse. Smith argues that AIā€™s danger isnā€™t computers outsmarting us, but us trusting them too much (because we think theyā€™re smarter).

Our take: Itā€™s definitely a bubble, but even the dotcom bust saw winners. Right now, GenAI providers are targeting enterprise use-cases pretty heavily, which indicates a new stage in the industryā€™s growth. This shift from consumer to enterprise follows previous tech waves like cloud storage, social media, and most recently, blockchain.

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Around the Horn.

Just for fun šŸ˜›

  • Meta will use facial recognition to combat celebrity scam ads (known as ā€œceleb-baitā€) by running face scans over ads that get flagged as suspicious.
  • Newscorpā€™s Dow Jones and NY Post sued Perplexity for orchestrating what they call a ā€œcontent kleptocracyā€ and want up to $150K per infringement.
  • Microsoft announced 10 new agents for Dynamics 365 (launch video), including bots for sales qualification, supplier communication, and customer serviceā€”some think this was a strategic dig at Salesfroce Agentforce, which launches this Friday.
  • Over two-thirds of teachers report using AI content detectors, with testing showing even highly accurate systems had a 1-2% false positive rateā€”this particularly impacts neurodivergent + ESL students, who write in more formulaic styles (as we explained here).

Treats To Try.

  1. *Metronome powers billing and pricing for the top names in AI. Define and iterate on your usage-based pricing seamlessly. Request a demo (or check out this OpenAI case study).
  2. IBMā€™s Granite 3.0 models (with 8B and 2B parameter versions) are now available for commercial use on the Watsonx platformā€”code here, read more here, or try Granite in the playground here.
  3. Llama Workspace is a new tool that gives you access to most major chat models (GPT-4o, Claude, Llama) in one team workspace for a fraction of ChatGPT's cost ($9/user/month)ā€”thereā€™s also LibreChat, which is another tool you can try as well.
  4. LLamaLife helps you complete your daily tasks one at a time by showing estimated finishing times and task timers (to combat time blindness).
  5. Elipses News creates personalized daily podcasts on the topics that matter to youā€”use promo code ElLIPSISOCT for 1 month free (app store only).
  6. Talkstack gives you a fleet of agents for calls, texts, and emailsā€”new launch, so read more here. You can mess around for free, but gotta buy credits to test.
  7. Duonut drops surveys into your apps, asks follow-up questions as users respond, and gives you quick summariesā€”free to try, pretty neat.

See our top 51 AI Tools for Business here!

*This is sponsored content. Advertise in The Neuron here.

Tuesday Ticker

  • J.M. chose Web searches: ā€œI've pretty much stopped using Google for searching and fact checking. I also use Perplexity as very factual AI for document checking for style, spelling, tone, etc. I find it's another valuable angle to add to my tool box.ā€
  • T.J. chose Web searches: ā€œPerplexity was helpful this year for getting up to speed on and comparing local political candidates up for election in November.ā€
  • E.J. chose Havenā€™t tried it yet: ā€œIt came highly recommended by someone that also pointed me to your newsletter a few weeks ago. Great article! Thanks!ā€

Check out the full story here if you missed it.

A Cat's Commentary.

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See you cool cats on X!

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