😺AI expert predictions vs normie feels

PLUS: The BEST AI prediction we've read...

Welcome, humans.

It turns out there’s a pretty high chance that the US government just used AI to create its newly announced tariff policy:

The breakdown of tariff percentages on each country seemed to perplex most economists until James Surowiecki reverse-engineered the calculations, and then Rohit Krishnan found that all the major AI models landed on similar methods.

Translation? Somebody somewhere in the chain of command asked an AI to come up with the formula they ultimately used to dish out the tariffs.

No big deal… it’s not like the plan led to the worst single day stock market drop since Covid or anything… but hey, somewhere in Silicon Valley, Jensen Huang is probably a little relieved—finally, a market sell off NVIDIA didn't cause!

Speaking of tariffs, those imposed on China, Taiwan, and South Korea could be about to hamper Big Tech's AI infrastructure investments by increasing data center costs—it looks like Microsoft has already delayed some new builds in Australia, the UK, and US.

Once the White House tells the AI what happened, their new policy will be like...

Here’s what you need to know about AI today:

New research from Pew shows disconnect between experts and normies.
OpenAI made ChatGPT Plus free to US/Canadian students.
Spotify launched new GenAI ads.
DeepMind's Dreamer AI taught itself Minecraft.

Advertise in The Neuron here.

AI experts and the public are miles apart on AI's future—for better or worse…

Plot twist: AI experts and the general public have wildly different takes on artificial intelligence. New Pew Research comparing 5.4K regular Americans with 1K AI experts just revealed a perception gap wider than the Mariana Trench.

The gap is striking: 56% of experts believe AI will positively impact the U.S. over the next 20 years versus only 17% of the public. While 47% of experts are more excited than concerned about AI in daily life, just 11% of Americans feel the same.

Most Americans (64%) believe AI will eliminate jobs, compared to only 39% of experts. In fact, 33% of experts expect no job changes, and 19% predict AI will create more jobs.

Both groups agree some jobs are at risk:

Cashiers (73% both predict fewer jobs).
Journalists (60% agreement).
Software engineers (50% agreement).

But they disagree on others:

Truck drivers: 62% of experts predict losses vs. 33% of public.
Teachers: 43% of public expects losses vs. 31% of experts.
Doctors: 28% of public predicts losses vs. 18% of experts.

There's also a representation problem. About 75% of experts believe men's views are well-represented in AI design versus 44% for women. For racial perspectives, 73% say White adults' views are well-accounted for, dropping to 50% for Asian adults, and only about a quarter for Black (27%) or Hispanic (25%) adults.

Interestingly, gender creates a massive outlook gap among the experts themselves: 63% of male experts predict positive societal impact versus only 36% of female experts.

One point of consensus? Regulation. Both experts (56%) and public (58%) worry more about insufficient government oversight than excessive regulation.

Our take: The most revealing finding is what's unsaid—the uncertainty regular people feel about AI. Between one-third and half of Americans answered “not sure” to many questions, indicating a knowledge gap the industry must address.

We wrote more about this on the website—check it out!

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Disclaimers

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Prompt Tip of the Day

IDK about you, but we’re really impressed with Claude 3.7 (extended thinking version) and it’s ability to fact check its work (when asked). Try this prompt:

Please fact check each fact in the above output against the original sources to confirm they are accurate. Assume there are mistakes, so don't stop until you've checked every fact and found all mistakes.

Once you prompt it, click the little diagonal arrow next to the thinking dialogue box to expand its thoughts, and you can watch as it meticulously combs through each fact.

If it misses entire sections (a.k.a the lost in the middle problem), you can ask it to go back and check those sections specifically.

In our experience, as long as Claude has all of the original context in its context window, it rarely hallucinates. That said, Vectara’s Hallucination Leaderboard still tracks Claude’s hallucination rate at 4.5%.

The lowest on the list? Shockingly, Gemini 2.0-Flash.

Treats To Try.

Supaboard transforms your complex data into instant answers, actionable dashboards, and intelligent reports.
Vapi creates voice AI agents that handle your phone calls and integrate with your existing tools—free to try on the website (freaky).
Tines helps you easily create no-code workflows that automate repetitive tasks across your organization's systems.
OpenNutrition gives you instant access to accurate nutrition data through an open-source database for better meal tracking.
Adaptive protects your organization from genAI social engineering attacks through realistic deepfake simulations across email, voice, and SMS channels (raised $43M from OpenAI).
Vana lets you export your data from big tech platforms (here), contribute it to AI model training, and actually own a share of the models you help create.

See our top 51 AI Tools for Business here!

Around the Horn.

OpenAI made ChatGPT Plus free for US and Canadian college students through May.
Amazon’s Kindle can now recap books in a series and its Shopping app has a new feature called Buy for Me completes purchases from other brand websites.
Runway raised $308M (and $536M+ total) to support more research on its video generator, hiring, and and expansion of film production arm.
Spotify introduced new Gen AI Ads for creating scripts and voiceovers at no extra cost to advertisers.
DeepMind developed an AI system called Dreamer that figure out how to collect diamonds in Minecraft without being taught how to play, using reinforcement learning and a “world model” to imagine future scenarios.

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Intelligent Insights

2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo

If you watch one AI video this weekend, watch this one. It’s 3 hours long (sorry!) but it’s probably the most impressive (and likely?) prediction of what’s to come in a fast take-off scenario that we’ve seen (full prediction here).
- One of the researchers (Daniel Kokotajlo, formerly at OpenAI) pretty much predicted the last 4 years of AI progress back in 2021—they say lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice, but then again…
Intelligence analysts are increasingly over-relying on AI, causing a dangerous decline in critical thinking skills as investigators offload cognitive work—potentially undermining the entire field's integrity (cites this paper).
A team of law professors argued in favor or training AI on pirated content as “fair use” (amicus brief).
This is crazy—video game cheats have apparently evolved from simple memory-reading “aimbots” to advanced AI-powered aim assistance that runs on separate hardware, making them nearly undetectable by anti-cheat software.
Check out this great dialogue between a historian and an early AI scientist shared by .