😺 The $150B Open(AI) question

PLUS: is o1 too "woke"?

Welcome, humans.

It seems Mark Zuckerberg's vision of a glasses-dominated future is getting a less-than-rosy reception. While Zuck sees a world where we'll all be sporting high-tech specs by 2030, the internet's collective eyeroll suggests we're not quite ready to trade our pocket rectangles for face computers:

This user’s reaction says it all: “I hope by 2030 I can do a laser surgery for my eyesight not to wear glasses anymore.”

Here’s what you need to know about AI today:

We break down the bear and bull case for OpenAI.
Cerebras Systems will go public to compete with NVIDIA.
Meta declined to clarify if Ray-Ban photos train its models.
Deepfake scam almost cost a dad $30K in fake bail money.

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Does OpenAI have TOO much going on? We break down the Bear + Bull cases for the company.

OpenAI has been in the news a lot lately, and TBH, it’s been a mixed bag.

First, you’ve got the high profile departures. And then, all the drama over its new funding round:

The staggering $150B valuation…
Who’s in (Microsoft, NVIDIA, and now SoftBank)
Who’s out (Apple, maybe Sam himself?)

And most important of all, the fact that this new round is contingent on turning a non-profit into a B-Corp.

But there’s something else happening here, too: a product lineup that's expanding faster than a tech startup's snack bar.

Which begs the question: Is OpenAI biting off more than it can chew?

Let's break down the bull case AND bear case. First, the bull:

OpenAI's revenue growth is mind-boggling (now at $300M a month, up 1,700% since 2023).
OpenAI still has the technical edge, with GPT-o1's “Chain of Thought" capabilities reportedly a year ahead of competitors, with AI agents next.
Current paying subscribers >= 10M for ChatGPT and 1M businesses.

Its future financial projections are ambitious, too: it projects to make $11.6B next year and has a 2029 revenue target of $100B(!!!).

Now here’s the bear case:

Open-source models are matching or surpassing OpenAI's offerings.
Tech giants like Meta and Google are integrating AI deeper into their platforms, which are basically the “doorways” to the internet we all use.
Data scarcity could limit future model improvements.

The transition from nonprofit to for-profit has also raised eyebrows, with some viewing it as a potential “hack” on the tax code.

Ethical concerns are surfacing too. Sam Altman's reported 7% equity stake, worth ~$10.5B, has led to questions about his previous claims of not being motivated by money.

And OpenAI's wide portfolio is not necessarily a good thing. For example, look at how many APIs it has:

And the list goes on…

As Matthew Lynley points out, this “product creep” threatens, #1: serious management challenges reigning it in, and #2: serious risk of confusing customers.

Does OpenAI have too much going on? It’s certainly juggling A LOT. Some think Sam Altman is spreading himself too thin on too many side projects, but investors are basically betting that OpenAI is “too big to fail.” We’ll soon see if OpenAI's “more is more” strategy will pay off, or if “more” is a little TOO much…

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Cerebras Systems, the AI chip startup, filed for an IPO to go public under the ticker CBRS in order to compete with NVIDIA.
Meta won’t admit whether or not it uses Ray-Ban wearer’s images to train its models.
Be careful out there—a layer’s dad was almost scammed out $30K when a deep fake AI scam called him and requested bail money from a DUI.

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Tuesday Ticker.

So many cool answers about how ppl are using Perplexity… should we do a full story on this?! Share your thoughts in the feedback below!

J.R. chose Perplexity: “I use it 10-15 times a day as a physician.”
T.M. chose ChatGPT: “Using ChatGPT, even if it doesn't help much, is faster than wading though the adds, and then verifying the link, etc.”
M.B. chose Gemini: “I am using Gemini more and more for search and troubleshooting support on the weekends when I'm spending time on my hobbies. I quite like the voice integration and am hopeful it'll integrate most seamlessly in the long run with my google services (gmail, gdrive, etc).”